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Archive » May 2021 » Banks and the difficult art of forecasting scenarios. Inspired by Tiziano Terzani

Banks and the difficult art of forecasting scenarios. Inspired by Tiziano Terzani

Davidia Zucchelli
May 2021 - n. 5
Keywords: Banche, scenari di previsione, modelli
Jel codes: G21, G28

Forecasting models must be based on solid foundations: this is a lesson that has its roots in ancient times – in the activity of fortune-tellers and seers, especially regarding the Asian continent. This forecasting mentality is now spreading in the West in the economic field and in particular with regard to banking. Banking supervision has increasingly become forward-looking – that is, it asks the supervised banks themselves to develop their expectations relating to the evolution of key economic and financial variables guided only in part by central authorities. In order to develop effective forecasting scenarios, it is important to adopt adequate models that are increasingly refined to outline the evolutionary profiles for the main economic and financial variables which are able to anticipate any crises.

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